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Chapter 1 - Population Growth: What the Statistics Say |
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The We Will Decide proposal has been prompted by our population having expanded faster than our capacity to provide for it at an acceptable standard.
It is not necessary to show that population growth is, in each area, the prime cause of the continual problems we experience with transport, housing, development and services. It is logical to conclude that population growth contributes to or exacerbates these problems, and that is a sufficient reason to re-examine how we can manage population growth.
This chapter does not comment on whether growth is good or bad. It merely presents statistics on three issues: population growth, the components of population growth and the number of ‘boat people’ arrivals. This should help you to make up your own mind as to the extent to which population growth is contributing to problems in your local area.
Australia’s Growing Population
This table shows how Australia’s population has grown in the last 40 years.
Total Resident Population 1972-2012
These figures for 1972 to 2007 are drawn from Australian Historical Population Statistics, Australian Bureau of Statistics 3105.0.65.001 2008, Table 1.3. The figures for 2012 are drawn from Regional Population Growth, Australia 2011-2012, ABS 3218.0, Table 10. (Each publication contains much more information than is presented above. They can be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet program from www.abs.gov.au - search under the catalogue number. You will need to have a spreadsheet program on your computer. The spreadsheets are large and take some time to load.) The total for Australia from 1993 onwards includes the people resident in smaller territories and consequently is more than the total for the States and Territories listed in the table. The percentage increase during each Government’s term of office in the last row has been calculated by the author.
Regional Figures
We can see the cumulative effect at a regional level of several years’ increases in the following figures from Western Sydney. Increases of well below 2% per year for 11 years has meant the region has had to accommodate nearly 200,000 additional people.
Source: Obtained from http://profile.id.com.au/wsroc/population-estimate based on Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional Population Growth, Australia (3218.0). Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id the population experts.
This equates to 14.1% growth for Western Sydney since 2001, but at a local level the effect has been more pronounced. The population growth within Blacktown Council’s area between 2001 and 2012 was 19.9%, Holroyd’s was 18.5% and Parramatta’s was 20.5%.
Other regions have grown much faster. Here are the figures for some other local government areas in other States drawn from ABS 3218.0 for 2001-2002 and 2011-2012.
This is just a random sample of areas where there has been significant growth. You can check the population density and recent growth figures in your area by accessing the Bureau of Statistics publication Regional Population Growth, Australia 2011-2012. Just go to www.abs.gov.au and in the search bar towards the top right type in the catalogue number, 3218.0. From the menu options for that publication, the Download tab offers Population Estimates by Local Government Area 2011-2012, and under the Past and Future Releases tab the various Regional Population Growth publications for earlier years allow you to access the figures for past years. (Only download files in SuperTable’s .srd format if you enjoy the challenge of learning new software).
The Local Level
While some population impacts are felt at a regional or local government level, others only matter much closer to home. Density in your area may not have increased significantly, but if it has resulted in your home being surrounded by home units, density may be too high for you.
You can find out the population density of your Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) but the procedure is rather involved. Firstly you need to find the ABS code number for your SA2 through the procedure described here: How to Find Your Statistical Area. Then from the Downloads concerning regional population growth select Population Estimates by Statistical Area Level 2 2011-2012.
Components of Population Growth
Population growth is made up of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures). For most of the last 40 years, natural increase has been higher than net migration. There were 3 years during the 1980s when migration was higher, but since 2001, migration has been higher in all but 3 years.
Those who prefer a graphical representation of the trends can view Figure 1 at the bottom of p.14 of the Commonwealth Government’s 2011 publication Sustainable Australia -Sustainable Communities, accessible here. For those who prefer figures, the percentage growth in each of the two component of population growth are set out in the tables below.
‘Boat’ People
The dominant migration issue since 2001 has been the unexpected arrival by boat of people claiming asylum as refugees. Variously described as ‘illegal’, ‘irregular maritime arrivals’, ‘asylum seekers’ and ‘unlawful non-citizens’, the term ‘boat people’ will be used as it’s less of a mouthful and at least we all understand who we mean by that term.
The number of boat people relative to migrant entrants is set out here: Migrant Numbers and Boat Person Arrivals Compared. Note that a boat person is not classed as a migrant until he or she has been in the country for 12 out of the last 16 months. So boat people removed before this time elapses never show up in the migration figures.
The next chapter examines the implications from these figures.
Go to Chapter 2 |
Chapter 1 - Population Growth: What the Statistics Say |
|
The We Will Decide proposal has been prompted by our population having expanded faster than our capacity to provide for it at an acceptable standard.
It is not necessary to show that population growth is, in each area, the prime cause of the continual problems we experience with transport, housing, development and services. It is logical to conclude that population growth contributes to or exacerbates these problems, and that is a sufficient reason to re-examine how we can manage population growth.
This chapter does not comment on whether growth is good or bad. It merely presents statistics on three issues: population growth, the components of population growth and the number of ‘boat people’ arrivals. This should help you to make up your own mind as to the extent to which population growth is contributing to problems in your local area.
Australia’s Growing Population
This table shows how Australia’s population has grown in the last 40 years.
Total Resident Population 1972-2012
These figures for 1972 to 2007 are drawn from Australian Historical Population Statistics, Australian Bureau of Statistics 3105.0.65.001 2008, Table 1.3. The figures for 2012 are drawn from Regional Population Growth, Australia 2011-2012, ABS 3218.0, Table 10. (Each publication contains much more information than is presented above. They can be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet program from www.abs.gov.au - search under the catalogue number. You will need to have a spreadsheet program on your computer. The spreadsheets are large and take some time to load.) The total for Australia from 1993 onwards includes the people resident in smaller territories and consequently is more than the total for the States and Territories listed in the table. The percentage increase during each Government’s term of office in the last row has been calculated by the author.
Regional Figures
We can see the cumulative effect at a regional level of several years’ increases in the following figures from Western Sydney. Increases of well below 2% per year for 11 years has meant the region has had to accommodate nearly 200,000 additional people.
Source: Obtained from http://profile.id.com.au/wsroc/population-estimate based on Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional Population Growth, Australia (3218.0). Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id the population experts.
This equates to 14.1% growth for Western Sydney since 2001, but at a local level the effect has been more pronounced. The population growth within Blacktown Council’s area between 2001 and 2012 was 19.9%, Holroyd’s was 18.5% and Parramatta’s was 20.5%.
Other regions have grown much faster. Here are the figures for some other local government areas in other States drawn from ABS 3218.0 for 2001-2002 and 2011-2012.
This is just a random sample of areas where there has been significant growth. You can check the population density and recent growth figures in your area by accessing the Bureau of Statistics publication Regional Population Growth, Australia 2011-2012. Just go to www.abs.gov.au and in the search bar towards the top right type in the catalogue number, 3218.0. From the menu options for that publication, the Download tab offers Population Estimates by Local Government Area 2011-2012, and under the Past and Future Releases tab the various Regional Population Growth publications for earlier years allow you to access the figures for past years. (Only download files in SuperTable’s .srd format if you enjoy the challenge of learning new software).
The Local Level
While some population impacts are felt at a regional or local government level, others only matter much closer to home. Density in your area may not have increased significantly, but if it has resulted in your home being surrounded by home units, density may be too high for you.
You can find out the population density of your Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) but the procedure is rather involved. Firstly you need to find the ABS code number for your SA2 through the procedure described here: How to Find Your Statistical Area. Then from the Downloads concerning regional population growth select Population Estimates by Statistical Area Level 2 2011-2012.
Components of Population Growth
Population growth is made up of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures). For most of the last 40 years, natural increase has been higher than net migration. There were 3 years during the 1980s when migration was higher, but since 2001, migration has been higher in all but 3 years.
Those who prefer a graphical representation of the trends can view Figure 1 at the bottom of p.14 of the Commonwealth Government’s 2011 publication Sustainable Australia -Sustainable Communities, accessible here. For those who prefer figures, the percentage growth in each of the two component of population growth are set out in the tables below.
‘Boat’ People
The dominant migration issue since 2001 has been the unexpected arrival by boat of people claiming asylum as refugees. Variously described as ‘illegal’, ‘irregular maritime arrivals’, ‘asylum seekers’ and ‘unlawful non-citizens’, the term ‘boat people’ will be used as it’s less of a mouthful and at least we all understand who we mean by that term.
The number of boat people relative to migrant entrants is set out here: Migrant Numbers and Boat Person Arrivals Compared. Note that a boat person is not classed as a migrant until he or she has been in the country for 12 out of the last 16 months. So boat people removed before this time elapses never show up in the migration figures.
The next chapter examines the implications from these figures.
Go to Chapter 2 |
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